Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 29th, 2025

Candice Liberatore • October 29, 2025

Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2¼%.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

October 29, 2025


The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.


With the effects of US trade actions on economic growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual practice of providing a projection for the global and Canadian economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and uncertainty is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a wider-than-usual range of risks.


While the global economy has been resilient to the historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening investment in many countries. In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about 3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.


In the United States, economic activity has been strong, supported by the boom in AI investment. At the same time, employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has weakened. Global financial conditions have eased further since July and oil prices have been fairly stable. The Canadian dollar has depreciated slightly against the US dollar.


Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace. US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment, and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover.


Canada’s labour market remains soft. Employment gains in September followed two months of sizeable losses. Job losses continue to build in trade-sensitive sectors and hiring has been weak across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are needed to keep the employment rate steady.


The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026 after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is expected to persist and be taken up gradually.


CPI inflation was 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been sticky around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI components suggests underlying inflation remains around 2½%. The Bank expects inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead and CPI inflation to remain near 2% over the projection horizon.


With ongoing weakness in the economy and inflation expected to remain close to the 2% target, Governing Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast.


The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition. The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to boost demand while maintaining low inflation. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 10, 2025. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on January 28, 2026.


Read the October 29th, 2025 Monetary Report


Candice Liberatore

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 10th, 2025

By Candice Liberatore • December 10, 2025
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2.1/4%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario December 10, 2025 The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Canada’s economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility. Canada’s labour market is showing some signs of improvement. Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months and the unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in November. Nevertheless, job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, as gasoline prices fell and food prices rose more slowly. CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year, while measures of core inflation remain in the range of 2½% to 3%. The Bank assesses that underlying inflation is still around 2½%. In the near term, CPI inflation is likely to be higher due to the effects of last year’s GST/HST holiday on the prices of some goods and services. Looking through this choppiness, the Bank expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation close to the 2% target. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Uncertainty remains elevated. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 28, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released at the same time.

Selling Your Property? Let's Talk

By Candice Liberatore • December 3, 2025
If you’ve been thinking about selling your existing property, for whatever reason, it would be in your best interest to connect with an independent mortgage professional before calling your real estate agent or listing it yourself. And while talking with your mortgage professional might not sound like the most logical place to start, here are a few scenarios that explain why it makes the most sense. If you’re buying a new property If you’re selling your property, chances are, you’ll have to move somewhere! So, if you plan on buying a new property using the equity from the sale of your existing property, chances are you’ll need a new mortgage. Don’t assume that just because you’ve secured mortgage financing before, that you’ll qualify again. Mortgage rules are constantly changing; make sure you have a pre-approval in place before you list your property. Also, by connecting with a mortgage professional first, you can look into your existing mortgage terms. You might be able to port your mortgage instead of getting a new one, which could save you some money. If you’re not buying a new property Even if you aren’t buying a new property and want to sell your existing property, it’s still a good idea to connect with a mortgage professional first, as we can look at the cost of breaking your mortgage together. Unless you have an open mortgage, or a line of credit, there will be a penalty to break your mortgage. The goal is to work on a plan to minimize your penalty. Because of how mortgage penalties work, sometimes it’s just a matter of waiting a few months to save thousands. You'll never know unless you take a look at the details. Marital breakdown The simple truth is that marriages break down. When that happens, often, people want closure, and unfortunately, they make decisions without really thinking them through or seeing the full picture. So, instead of simply selling the family home because that feels like the only option, please know that special programs exist that allow one party to buy out the former spouse. The key here is to have a legal separation agreement is in place. If you’d like to discuss the sale of your property and your plans for the future, connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you!